You might think the above overline is blatantly obvious, but think about this for a minute (or at least as long as it takes you to read the following). It?s true that Chad Reed can win the 2003 250cc supercross title in his rookie season, in fact he?s only 10 points behind Ricky Carmichael. It?s true that nearly two months ago nobody imagined that Reed could come back from 25 points down on Carmichael and even be a threat in the points chase. It?s even true that Ricky Carmichael thought he was once again in a world of his own and could do no wrong (especially after crushing everyone in Daytona). It?s what isn?t true that might actually surprise you.

Chad Reed was not caught off-guard at his sudden success after Daytona, in fact it was as if he had became a new rider before St. Louis. After spotty wins in the early half of the season, Reed knew he could beat Carmichael heads up in a main event. What was it that transformed Chad from a second place rider after Daytona into a non-stop winning machine before St. Louis? It is confidence, plain and simple. Chad Reed has absolutely nothing to lose. Coming back to win the supercross title from 25 points down seems unheard of, but coming back and beating Ricky Carmichael seems ludicrous! On top of that, Carmichael has never thrown away the points lead once he has found himself in first. The plain fact is that no one (including us) thought that Reed could mount a challenge after Daytona that would end up with him taking five straight wins and the title being decided in Las Vegas. So will Chad Reed win the 2003 supercross title?

The answer is probably not, and Reed knows it. Chad?s goal after Daytona was to end on a strong note and win the last six races. He?s won five, and could cap off one of the most exciting supercross seasons to date by entering a dog fight with Carmichael this Saturday at Las Vegas. With the amount of factory riders out until the outdoor Nationals, there really isn?t anyone to stop Ricky from bolting to the front of the pack (the same goes with Chad). A major fluke would have to happen in order for Chad to win the title.

Hypothetically speaking, Reed would have to win and Ricky would have to finish fifth or worse. Will it happen? Probably not, although Carmichael could get into trouble. RC wants to win the last round of his probable 2003 title, and might take a win in higher regard than a championship (although doubtful). This could lead to Ricky riding over his head and crashing, or some other strange instance to happen.

Are we pulling for Chad Reed to win? Certainly not, because we want the best rider to win the championship, and Ricky Carmichael has proved to be the smarter rider. Then again, are we pulling for Ricky Carmichael to win? Not at all, because we do not pick sides. All we know is that now Las Vegas will be quite a race to watch. Will Chad Reed win his sixth straight race? Will Carmichael mount a comeback and beat Reed? Who will win the championship? We?ll all find out Saturday night in Las Vegas.


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